We have adjusted our scenario to take into account the integration of Breakwater Resources. Assuming consolidation for 5 months this year, the newly acquired mines are expected to make a € 49.7m contribution to EBITDA this year and € 114.9m next year.
Nyrstar announced it is making an all-cash offer to acquire Breakwater Resources by way of a friendly take-over bid. The total transaction value (including special dividend) corresponds to approximately C$ 663m (€ 473m) on a fully diluted basis.
Following the acquisition of Breakwater, and once all operations are ramped-up (expected by the end of 2012), Nyrstar’s annual mining production is estimated at approximately 475kt (from 335kt) of zinc in concentrate. Based upon 2010 global production data, Nyrstar would rank as the fifth largest zinc miner. The acquisition will lift the level of zinc integration from 31% to 43% (based upon full production), a significant step toward the medium-term integration target of 50% (corresponding to approximately 550kt of zinc in concentrate).
With the proposed acquisition of Breakwater Resources, Nyrstar is taking a significant step forward towards its medium-term goal of 50% integration at an attractive price. With three out of the four mines operational, Breakwater will immediately contribute to production and cash flows.
We have revised our EBITDA estimates upwards by respectively 23.7% and 37.6% for 2011 and 2012 to € 325.0m and € 470.0m respectively. Our adjusted EPS estimates have been revised upwards by respectively 21.7% and 38.3% to € 0.73 and € 1.30.
With mining production gradually ramping from 84kt last year to an estimated 247.4kt this year, 399.0kt next year and 450.7kt in 2013, Nyrstar continues to offer good earnings momentum. We have increased our target price from € 11.50 to € 12.50 per share, corresponding to respectively 9.6x P/E 12 and 5.3x EV/EBITDA 12.