Actual (Nov): 8.0 %
Consensus: 8.0 %
Previous (Oct): 7.9 %
The unemployment rate has returned to 8 pct, in line with market consensus. Layoffs increased compared with the previous month, while hiring was lower. It is a seasonal effect that flows on the labor market slow down as the end of the year approaches. However, the worsening of conditions is not just seasonality. The seasonally adjusted unemployment is on the rise and indicates that labor market is being influenced by the decreasing economic activity. Number of vacancies has decreased further, reversing the promising rise from the first half of the year. In industry, employment shrunk for the third time in a row in October. We expect that the negative trend will continue as the sector has slowed nearly to stagnation.
two months will likely bring a significant rise in unemployment due to negative seasonal effect. Moreover, the rise will be boosted by the impact of the economic downturn. The unemployment rate may approach 9 pct in the first months of 2012.