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Buyers returned to the Polish FX market to cash in profits ahead of the weekend on Friday

23.1.2006 10:37
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Once again it was politics which stood behind the move – financial markets seem more and more confident that PiS will eventually forge a stabilization deal with either the populists (higly likely) or the liberals in an effort to avoid early elections. By noon the EUR/PLN pair returned to the 3.84 area. Late on Thursday PO and PiS returned to talks restoring hope for a future coalition deal which would guarantee political stability in the longer time perspective. Despite the rather positive undertone of the meeting we uphold our view that the parties are still very far away from sealing a deal. Comments following the meeting between PO’s Donald Tusk and president Lech Kaczynski were once again so vague, that we are not even sure that any progress at all has been made toward a coalition agreement. Nonetheless the market will continue to look for positive signs concerning the relationship between PO and PiS ahead of the budget vote tomorrow. We believe that in the meantime PiS will finalize the “stabilization pact“ negotiations with parliamentary fringe groups in order secure support for the budget and additional “necessary” legislation. If not for politics we would probably see the Polish zloty return to strengthening mode today. As for now however it seems that due to the lingering political uncertainty the market will remain erratic, hence more zloty volatility can be expected in the days to come.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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