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The Polish zloty slipped into negative territory against the euro on Wednesday

1.2.2006 10:02

The Polish zloty slipped into negative territory against the euro on Wednesday as the Fed decision on rates later in the evening started to weigh on the entire region and recovered following a dovish tone of the MPC statement after the meeting. As for the Polish market itself the pre MPC rate decision nervousness and sell-off on the Warsaw bourse added to the downbeat mood as well, which saw the EUR/PLN pair edge up to the 3.83-3.84 area in the early afternoon. Earlier in the session FinMin Zyta Gilowska’s declared in parliament that due to EU’s decision on the classification of open ended pension funds Poland would probably not enter the ERM-2 mechanism in 2007 and would also fail to fulfill the Eurozone entry criteria in 2009. As far as we are concerned this is truism, particularly given the government’s reluctance to give a precise entry date (a clear sign of the conservatives lack of enthusiasm toward joining the EMU) and the recently updated convergence program. As such the statement had no immediate impact on the market. The zloty tried to erase some of the losses after the fully anticipated a 25 bps rate cut, but failed to break back past the 3.83 EUR/PLN mark as financial markets geared up hesitantly for the all-important communiqué following the MPC meeting. A dovish tone of the communiqué (see more on that in the fixed income part), which boosted appetite for Polish bonds, contributed also to a sharp strengthening of the zloty just before the closing.

We expect this positive climate for the currency to extend over today, as fixed income and equity investors internalize fully a positive tone of the message from the central bank about an inflation outlook. Inflation projection that is supposed to be published in the morning, shouldn’t dramatically change the investors’ perception of monetary policy shaping. It is also worth mentioning, that domestic politics will gradually start moving in the center of market attention, as the period of national mourning following construction disaster in Katowice is close be over.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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