Polish macro: Industrial output soaring in May

Industrial production in May grew by an exceptional 19.1% in y/y terms last month (largely thanks to record strong results in manufacturing) surpassing even the most optimistic estimates and crushing any remaining hopes for more monetary easing. Just to mention the two most significant contributors: the production of household electronics grew by over 70% y/y and car production was up by over 40% y/y. Both these sectors are closely export-related so it seems, that contrary to previous expectations net exports will remain a strong contributor to growth in 2Q. As for the GDP growth itself the May output numbers fully compensate for the weaker April results and as such support our view that despite the smaller number in working days GDP growth could reach a sub 5.0% y/y level this quarter.