Actual (May): -0.4 % m/m, -3.8 % y/y
Consensus: -0.1 % m/m, -3.5 % y/y
Previous (Apr): -0.5 % m/m, -2.5 % y/y
A drop of metal prices is the key factor behind another fall in industrial PPI. Also food and plastics prices decreased. On the other hand, surging oil has pushed up refined petroleum product prices. However, higher oil prices did not outweigh the effect of decreasing metal prices.
Falling PPI hints on stronger disinflationary pressures on CPI in the months to come. We therefore stick to our expectation that the CNB will cut the interest rates at their next monetary meeting (25th June). In 2009 we expect the PPI to fall by 4.4 %.