Brent has been trading sideways in the last four sessions and price of the front-month contract returned above 110 USD per barrel (USD/bbl) yesterday. Although the spread between the front and the second month contract has been steadily rising in the second half of the month, previously tight balance in the North Sea market calmed down significantly and the frontend of the CFD curve even dipped into mild contango towards the backdrop of lower Asian demand for North Sea grades (despite continuous supply disruptions in Libya).
Meanwhile, the latest Commitment of Traders report showed that Money Managers’ (or so called speculative) net position in WTI futures hit a new all-time high last week which signals that WTI might be prone to sell-offs.
From this point of view it is worth to follow tomorrow’s release of figures on US crude & products inventories (markets expect mild increase in crude inventories).
After breaching resistance at 1323 USD/toz, gold gained nearly one percent yesterday and its price therefore increased by 6.4 % in last four weeks. Gold has been recently supported by worse than expected figures from the US labour market and rising geopolitical tensions (Thailand, Turkey, Ukraine) might have also played a role. Nevertheless, room for prospective further gains is in our view limited; first, RSI indicates thatthe metal may be overbought and second, we do not expect Fed would reconsider tapering vis-a-vis a set of weaker than expected labour market data (which might be influenced by cold weather).