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CEE currencies rally on dollar weakness

CEE currencies rally on dollar weakness

21.4.2011 11:16

The Czech koruna is probably currently set to extend gains as EUR/CZK stays below the 55-day moving average. Rallying global equity markets seems to help the currency as well. The short-term gains may also be driven by US dollar weakness and stop-losses on USD/CZK, which currently attacks 16.50 USD/CZK and may trigger some stop-losses among exporters. That is why we believe EUR/CZK should currently stay in the stronger 23.90-24.20 EUR/CZK range.
The pair is more or less immune to domestic news now. Yesterday the CNB vicegovernor Hampl reiterated his dovish stance and said that a stronger koruna may be an argument for a later start of an interest rate hiking cycle. At the same time there was no visible reaction to Hampl’s comments on the Czech fixed-income markets, which have remained very calm in recent days.

The Hungarian CB released its latest stability report, which concludes that the banking system is stable and its ability to absorb adverse shocks is adequate. Under stress scenarios, banks may need and additional HUF80B.
The Hungarian Economy Minister announced that the government will cut administrative costs for companies by a combined HUF500B in two steps this year. The plan is part of the government’s effort to boost economic growth just over 1% last year and deliver on its key election pledge to create 300 000 new jobs by 2014. The government’s plan continue to be supported for the forint. EUR/HUF fell below the 265 mark yesterday.
Today, Hungary plans to sell HUF45B bonds (2014/D, 2017/B and 2028/A). A large bond redemption this week together with better HUF sentiment should be supportive for the auctions.

The Polish zloty closed more or less unchanged at 3.97 EUR/PLN. Core inflation leapt by 0.5 percent compared to the previous month and reached 2 % on a year-onyear basis (in line with market expectations). Poland’s Minister of Finance Jacek Rostowski said yesterday that planned austerity measures would be translated into declining gross borrowing needs in the years ahead.
Regarding the zloty’s trading, the EUR/PLN currency pair is currently trading below 200 days moving average (3.965 EUR/PLN) and 50 days moving average (3.986 EUR/PLN). We think that the zloty might stay close to current levels for a while.

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