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CEE currencies failed to profit from positive sentiment on markets ahead of the Greek vote

CEE currencies failed to profit from positive sentiment on markets ahead of the Greek vote

29.6.2011 10:44

Czech Republic
The Czech koruna failed to appreciate on optimism about the situation in Greece, where support for the austerity package seemed to become more probable. The koruna remained more or less flat at 24.40 EUR/CZK.
Nevertheless if EUR/USD continues to go higher in light of Greek vote, we should see some positive reaction on the Czech koruna. First important target is the 55-day moving average (at 24.29 EUR/CZK). On the other hand, the gains may be limited as the Czech ministry of finance warned on the target for this year. The government may have to freeze 15 billion korunas to keep the deficit at 4.2% of GDP. That could lead the government to unify the VAT tax at higher rate than initially expected.


The Hungarian forint ended yesterday’s session broadly unchanged around the 268.50 EUR/HUF level as the domestic scene was uneventful. This morning however, the forint appreciated, falling below the 100-day moving average.
The Hungarian labour market data came out surprisingly strong. The unemployment rate dropped from 11.4% to 11% in the March-May period, while a more moderate decline was expected (to 11.2%). The employment rate rose from 48.9% to 49.3% and also the participation rate moved in the right direction.
Later today, attention will also go out the 2-day visit of US Secretary of State Clinton to Hungary, but also the key vote in the Greek parliament will be closely watched.


The Polish zloty underperformed the rest of regional currencies on Tuesday. The EUR/PLN currency pair broke above the 4 EUR/PLN level in the morning and remained above it in the rest of the session despite the mounting hopes on an approval of the Greek austerity package, which supported equities and commodities.
Today, the focus of the financial community will be on Greece. Even if the result of voting is positive, this might not trigger a strong rally of the zloty. The first reason is that the decision might be already partially priced in. Apart from that, current account balance for Q1/2011 will be released today. Moreover, the NBP will publish revisions of a huge “Errors & omissions” item of balance of payments, which will likely increase imports and hence worsen current account deficit. This could weigh on the zloty.

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