Polish daily Parkiet speculates that the value of new mortgage loans granted in Poland reached PLN 18bn-19bn in 1H12, down some 25% y/y.
Our view:
If Parkiet’s speculation proves correct, AMRON’s forecast for the value of new mortgage loans in Poland at PLN 44bn (down some 11% y/y) in full year 2012 could be too optimistic, so as our base assumption in this respect. At present our base-case scenario is for a contraction of around 15% in the value of new mortgage loans granted in Poland in full-year 2012: this reflects the envisaged slowdown in economic growth in Poland in 2012, the amendment to the Polish Financial Supervision Authority’s ‘Recommendation S’ effective from the beginning of 2012, the shrinking number of banks offering FX-denominated loans, the gradual cessation of the government’s ‘Family on its own’ stimulus package, as well as the implications of the recently adopted ‘Developers Act’.