Danubius 4Q05 pre-tax profit came below consensus on top line disappointment

Danubius reported a 4Q05 pre-tax loss of HUF 1.3bn, well below the consensus estimate of a HUF 0.7bn loss and even below our estimate of a HUF 1.0bn loss, the most pessimistic on the market. Lower-than-expected operational revenues, higher General & Administrative costs and depreciation were the main factors dragging down the quarterly pre-tax profit.

Total operational revenues came in at HUF 10.2bn (up 8.4% y/y and down 22.1% q/q) versus the consensus estimate of HUF 10.85bn. The 4Q05 top line was supported by healthy occupancy and average room rate growth in Hungarian city hotels and also an uptick in guest nights in the Czech Republic. Top-line growth was somewhat offset by falling Slovakian guest nights, as more guests spent fewer nights. The Hungarian spa segment remained under pressure due to overcapacities, and average room rates fell 11.5% y/y in 2005.

Total operational costs were HUF 10.1bn (up 7.0% y/y and 9.2% q/q) due to high G&A expenses on the back of high energy costs. Headline EBIT came at HUF -1.1bn mainly due to seasonality in the hotels business, but the figure fell short of our forecast (HUF -0.6bn) due to top-line disappointment.

Danubius’ pre-tax profit was a HUF 1.3bn loss (down 22.9% y/y and 156.9% q/q). Even though our pre-tax profit estimate fell at the lower end of the consensus estimates (in the HUF -1.0bn to HUF -0.3bn range, mean HUF -0.7bn), the actual top-line figures fell short of our expectations.

We reiterate our Buy rating on the stock and our target price of HUF 6,583 per share.