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Moody’s and Fitch suggest Poland should be more aggressive in fiscal consolidation

Moody’s and Fitch suggest Poland should be more aggressive in fiscal consolidation

12.10.2011 11:04

Although Central Europe was very closely watched by global markets yesterday, this time it was because of Slovakia, which has been a euro-zone member for some time. Nevertheless, the fact that the Slovak parliament voted down approval for expansion of the union rescue fund had little impact on regional markets. CE currencies were only little changed and the same has been basically true for regional bond markets.

Interestingly, the Hungarian fixed market failed to react to the September inflation figures, which showed another month-on-month decline (the forth in row). It clearly indicates that he weak forint has had no significant impact on durable goods prices so far. Such an outcome should in theory reduce recent rate hike bets, which have been priced in the Hungarian yield curve.

While the Polish fixed income market should eye the September inflation figure too, it also has to pay attention to fresh comments coming from re-elected government officials. In this respect, Polish PM (1 1800 CZK, 2,61%) Tusk cooled down a bit market expectations for a quick fix of country’s fiscal imbalance as he said that given the ongoing global crisis it was not time for aggressive reforms. Meanwhile rating agencies (Moody’s and Fitch) warned Polish policy-markers that they should reassess their (week) consolidation plans otherwise the country will face a negative rating action.


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