ADP report shows significant slowdown in hiring

According to the ADP employment report, US private employment rose at the slowest pace in seven months. Private employment rose by 119 000 in April, down from 201 000 in March. The consensus was looking for an increase by 170 000. The breakdown shows that the slowdown was broad-based as employment growth eased across large (4 000 from 20 000), medium-sized (57 000 from 84 000) and small (58 000 from 97 000) firms. The sector breakdown shows that weakness was based in the manufacturing sector where employment dropped by 5 000 after a 23 000 increase in March. As a result, employment dropped also in the overall goods-producing sector (by 4 000 from a gain of 43 000 in March). Within the services sector, hiring slowed too, from 158 000 to 123 000. Both the headline figure and the details are disappointing, but we are cautious to draw conclusions from it as the figures might have been distorted by the initial claims. The claims rose sharply over the reference period, which likely depressed the ADP number, as it incorporates the development of the claims into the estimation process. Recently also the correlation between the ADP and BLS reading was rather weak.