Central European forex and fixed-income markets have continued to enjoy relative positive sentiment in recent days and hours. The bullish mood was evident even in primary bond markets as both the Hungarian and Polish governments were able to easily sell T-bills (12M) and bonds (2Y) respectively.Looking at the regional forex markets it seems that the Czech koruna decided that it would catch-up some gains of its PEER’s. As result the EUR/CZK pair dipped significantly during last two sessions and even tested the 25.25 area.
As concern Hungary and its road for a new stand-by loan the IMF said it would like to see Hungary agreeing with the EU before talks about a new loan could start. This may slow down the process and may force Hungary to give in a lot of concessions about fiscal policy and other issues. The government on the other hand indicated this morning that it is ready to negotiate about any issues, even the flat-tax may be modified, which means that most likely talks will continue and sooner or later there will be an agreement. Markets have gone a bit too far in our view yesterday, when the forint appreciated to the EUR/HUF 302 level and we may see a correction from here to between EUR/HUF 305-310 levels.
We expect the size of the loan to reach €15-20bn and cover external debt redemptions until 2015, which would be a safe position if achieved.