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The Czech koruna opened last week at CZK 29.220 per EUR

15.11.2005 9:01
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The Czech koruna opened last week at CZK 29.220 per EUR. At the beginning of the week it moved within the bounds of CZK 29.20-29.36 per EUR but on Monday it received a somewhat negative stimulus of a lower-thanexpected trade balance surplus. On Tuesday, by contrast, surprisingly higher consumer inflation increased market expectations of a future rate hike, and this encouraged rather than discouraged the Czech currency. However, specifically the second half of the week was particularly affected by the uncertainty before Thursday’s vote on the new government in the Lower Chamber of the Polish Parliament (the Sejm). Hence the koruna weakened significantly on Thursday until it reached the barrier of CZK 29.48 per EUR. Nevertheless, it immediately bottomed out and, at the end of the week, after the new Polish government was given the go-ahead, it strengthened significantly, notwithstanding the closed markets in Poland, and tested the technical barrier of CZK 29.16 per EUR at the opposite end of its fluctuation band.

The reaction of the region to the result of the Polish elections will be important at the beginning of the week. Not only Polish but also many other world markets were closed on Friday. We believe that investors will view positively the mere fact that Poland has a new government after the long election marathon. On the other hand, we should keep in mind that approving the proposed government is no big surprise for markets, and that we cannot expect any substantial economic reforms from this instable minority government, supported by populist parties. Therefore we do not anticipate a major positive stimulus for the Czech koruna from this approval. As far as other data releases of this week are concerned, particularly the expected current account improvement may encourage the koruna somewhat. The other domestic figures including retail sales are likely to have a negligible effect. That is why we believe that, in spite of the sound fundamental development of the domestic economy, the koruna will lack enough stimuli to strengthen to less than CZK 29.16 per EUR this week. The surprising strengthening of the dollar may, to a certain extent, also have a negative impact on the Czech currency.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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