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Weekly CZK Report - At Two-Month High Despite Government Crisis

Weekly CZK Report - At Two-Month High Despite Government Crisis

18.04.2011 9:38
Autor: Tomáš Vlk, Patria Finance

The koruna hit two-month high, firming to the euro to the 24.20 level. The price action was likely motivated by the zloty´s gains after higher inflation data. Czech macro figures were mixed and their influence was not big.
Consumer inflation came out a touch below market consensus due to drop in prices of package holidays. On the other hand, producer prices accelerated significantly, in a similar fashion to last month. Overall, the figures did not offer the central bankers a clear argument. The external price pressures are increasing, while the transmission to consumer inflation remains slow.

Czech current account surprised with much higher surplus than expected. However, the figure was boosted by irregular flows between the Czech budget and the EU. Moreover, recently the current account data were subject of big revisions after changes in methodology. The release thus did not have any significant impact on markets.

CNB vice governor Vladimír Tomšík has recently commented on monetary policy. But, he did not hinted on his next vote, stressing the importance of the new staff projection and the discussion in the MPC. According to Tomšík, the surge in commodity prices is evident as well as the outlook of higher Eurozone interest rates. On the other hand, domestic demand is weaker than expected.

The Czech government crisis continues. The coalition finally agreed that all three parties should stay in the government, but an exact form and personnel changes are still unclear. Risk of government fall seems to be lower but the divergence in the coalition will likely mute the efforts to carry the important long-term reforms. The event may therefore be negative for the koruna in longer term.

In Poland March inflation came out significantly above estimates, which supported expectations about further monetary tightening. The zloty was boosted by the release that also helped the Czech currency.

The Eurozone periphery is getting under pressure. Greek yields and CDS spreads are surging, indicating a growing probability of default. Moreover, Ireland´s rating was downgraded by Moody´s. It is negative for the euro, but so far market reaction has been muted. Chinese data showed that the restriction does not have big effect. The GDP slowed down marginally, while industry kept its pace, retail sales accelerated and so did inflation. The figures suggest that more monetary tightening is in the pipeline, but they did not have significant impact on FX market.

In the US, consumer prices were in line with expectations, showing no acceleration. Producer prices increased less than expected. Other US data were good but did not give the dollar a boost. Expectations about the Fed funds rates have actually moved slightly down.

Next (2212 GBp, 0,32%) week, interesting news may come from the Czech politics but the potential impact on trading is questionable. No macro data are scheduled. Macro calendar for the major economies contains some soft indicators but is also quite weak. More attention may therefore turn to Greece and the company reporting season.

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