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Poland’s current account revision comes as a relief

Poland’s current account revision comes as a relief

30.6.2011 10:32

Czech Republic
On Wednesday, the Czech koruna as well as its CE peers appreciated the positive outcome of the Greek voting on austerity measures and strengthened to the 55 days moving average (currently seen at 24.293 EUR/CZK).
Regarding domestic events, the government approved a proposal of pension reform which introduces a second pillar of voluntary pension funds. Despite the fact that today is a deadline for deciding on the future of the Czech government, we believe that the koruna should turn its focus to the US indicators. We believe that even if the data is poor, the negative impact on the euro (and the rest of risky assets) might be less than is usually the case. So, we keep a positive bias on the EUR/CZK cross rate, which could return back below above mentioned 55 days moving average.

The Hungarian forint profited yesterday the most from the approval of the Greek austerity measures in parliament. The EUR/HUF pair fell from an opening level of 268.60 to close the session at 265.42, breaking below both the 55 and 100-day moving average.
This morning, the Hungarian central bank released the current account data. During the first three months of the year, the current account surplus rose to 787 million euros, from a surplus of 360 million euros in the last quarter of 2010. This is the biggest quarterly surplus on record, the National Bank of Hungary added, but still slightly below market expectations, as the consensus was looking for a surplus of €815 million. Overall, the data were broadly in line with expectations.
Growth in producer prices on the contrary slowed more than expected in May. On an annual basis, the increase in producer prices slowed from 4.9% Y/Y to 1.2% Y/Y, while the consensus was looking for an easing to 1.5% Y/Y. The Hungarian forint weakened somewhat on this morning, but might get further support this afternoon as the Greek parliament will vote on the implementation of the MTFS, which will probably be approved too.

The Polish zloty’s response to the approval of Greek austerity package was positive. The EUR/PLN cross rate gained about a half percent and moved back below the 4 EUR/PLN level.
Yesterday, the NBP unveiled long-awaited revision of balance of payments for 2004- 2010, which was close to the original forecasts of the NBP. The current account deficit was revised from 3.4% to 4.5% of GDP for 2010 (as opposed to the market expectations of 4.7% of GDP) and the NBP confirmed that the revision will not trigger changes in GDP levels (which is a key issue given the fact that automatic austerity measures would have been triggered if the debt-to-GDP ratio had exceeded 55%). Moreover, the structure of the financing from EU funds is, for the time being, stable.

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