Euro 2012 resembles Imtech’s home markets - Holland is incredibly disappointing (2 losses), and Spain (1 draw, being the main contender) and Ireland (1 loss) are also underperforming. England is showing signs of promise (1 draw, against a superior France). Some of the Eastern European teams are exceeding expectations re game play irrespective of the outcomeof their matches. Germany continues to outperform (2 wins). The sole exception is Nordic which goes well for Imtech, while Sweden (1 loss) failed to impress so far.
P&L vs. balance sheet:
Organic sales growth in Germany & Eastern Europe (GEE) and Nordicenhance the group margin because they generate premium margins. This should be offset by adverse conditions in Benelux and Spain, where sales and margins have been under pressure for some time now, especially in Holland. However, there is one aspect re organic growth in GEE and Nordic that works against Imtech: Germany has above-average WC, and Nordic WC is rising because of a shift towards larger projects. Re the latter, we refer to our April 2012 report ‘Synergy Master looking for new Servants’.
EPS est. lowered 4% as deleveraging should be back-end loaded:
Because of this we have taken another look at our cash flow projections, which point to cash inflow in FY 2012 of € 73m (deleveraging), including an estimated cash outflow of € 55m from organic growth in WC. With most companies, deleveraging would result in a decline in interest costs by say 5% x € 73m, so around € 3-4m y/y. However, in 1H12, Imtech pays an estimated € 29m in cash dividends, they spent an estimated € 55-60m on acquisitions in 1H12, 1Hof each year is characterised by a seasonal rise in WC in general, but the latter should be even more affected due to the change in sales mix (organic growth in GEE and Nordic). Hence, deleveraging should be very much back-end loaded, so the change in interest costs should be much smaller than one would expect when just considering deleveraging by an estimated € 73m. In response, we have raised our estimates for interest costs in 1H12, which initially included a bit of deleveraging, and this carries over into 2H12 and beyond. We have
also fine-tuned our estimates for minorities because of the recent acquisition in Turkey (80% ownership). On balance, we have lowered our EPS estimates by circa 4%.
TP trimmed to € 29 (from € 31). Buy rating reiterated:
We have lowered our target price on the basis of slightly lower earnings estimates, triggered by higher interest costs and slightly higher outflow from minorities. Our TP is based on the average of the fair values of our DCF-model, historic valuation multiples,and transaction multiples. We reiterate our Buy rating.