Heineken announced this morning during Euronext trading hours it has completed the acquisition of Fraser & Neave’s direct and indirect stake in Asia Pacific Breweries (APB, 39.7% stake) and Asia Pacific Investment Private Limited (APIPL). The timing is no surprise, after the recent clearance for the acquisition by the Competition Commission of Singapore and Heineken’s comments at that time that it expected to complete the transaction by no later than 20 November. Heineken now holds a 95.3% stake in Asia Pacific Breweries and commented it will make a mandatory general offer for the remaining 4.7% floated minorities, also at S$ 53 per APB share.
We remind that Heineken offered following insight on a pro-forma 2011 full
consolidation of Asia Pacific Breweries :
- An impact on consolidated volume of +8% to 178.3m hl
- An impact on group revenue of +8% to € 18.5bn
- An impact on EBITDA (beia) of +9% to € 4.0bn
- An impact on EBIT (beia) of +10% to € 3.0bn
Furthermore, Heineken stated that on the back of a pro-forma full consolidation of APB over the past 12 months (period until end June 2012) and assuming an interest cost of 3%, the transaction would have been EPS accretive over the stated period.
Our View:
We have already included APB (as of mid November) in our earnings model with an expected 12% positive effect on our FY13 (EBIT) beia forecast and a 6% EPS accretion effect in 2013.
We continue to believe the full APB takeover is an excellent strategic move, thereby improving the geo-mix towards emerging markets. Admittedly, the price paid is not particularly cheap (EV/EBITDA over past 12 months of approximately 17x), even if cheap financing makes the transaction immediately EPS accretive.
We continue to believe Heineken is trading at an excessive discount to global brewing peers AB InBev and SABMiller while the company is working hard on improving its geo-mix (partly thanks to APB but we also bear in mind the 2010 acquisition of FEMSA Cerveza) and in improving returns (€ 500m profit improvement program ongoing). We reiterate our BUY rating and € 57 target price.