Czech bonds inched higher yesterday, as we saw strong demand in the tender. The yield curve dropped 3 bps at the long end, while the front end was unchanged. Regarding trading, the bonds were initially under some weakening pressure as the domestic market caught up late losses of German Bunds. Moreover, investors weren’t willing to risk position before the 14-year auction. Furthermore, the above forecast January inflation decreased chance for a interest rate cut in the months to come. However, the figure doesn’t change our view on inflation risk. There are still no domestic inflationary pressures. Only change in regulated prices pushed consumer prices higher in January. We also have to reject interpretation that the higher figure means stronger spill over of high oil prices into the economy. In contrary, lacking wage pressures, high energy prices may have negative income effect on the economy later in the year. Therefore we expect inflation to start falling in summer.
The 14-year tender witnessed strong demand of CZK 10.7 bn, which almost doubled supply of CZK 6 bn. Moreover bids in the auction were pretty aggressive, therefore the average yield (3,779%) was down by 2 bps compare to the pre-tender level. The auction proved high appetite of investor for long dated bonds. Moreover, the recent correction of the market and stable outlook for official rate make bonds attractive for domestic institutional investors. Today, the market may lack any domestic incentive. The first event is the CNB meeting, which is scheduled on February 24. Therefore we have a calm two-week period ahead. The market may track German Bunds in the days to come, while the spread over German yields may not change.
ČSOB - Investment Research