Actual (Jan): 1.4 % m/m. 4.6 % y/y
Consensus: 1.0 % m/m, 4.2 % y/y
Previous (Dec): 1.0 % m/m, 3.7 % y/y
The January PPI figures are significantly above expectations. The inflation in producer prices is still driven up by food and commodities. In January, the world crude oil and coal prices went further up, which led to a 3.3 pct increase in refinery production and coke prices in the Czech PPI. The growth was already not as high as in December. However, the pricy commodities also started to pull up the prices of chemicals (+4.2 pct). Food prices increased by 1.7 pct over the month. The Czech koruna was strengthening fast at the beginning of the year. Without this factor the influence of the high commodity prices on the PPI would have been even stronger.
In January, there was also a significant contribution of surging electricity and water prices. These prices typically change once a year - in January. This year, the prices went up by 3.9 pct and 6.1 pct respectively.
The new PPI figures point to the persisting external risks for inflation. However inflation in consumer prices decreased in January, suggesting still low secondary effects because of the weak domestic demand. We therefore do not see the higher PPI figures to be a reason for an immediate CNB action.