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Philip Morris CR - FY12 preview

Philip Morris CR - FY12 preview

25.3.2013 12:03
Autor: Tomáš Tomčány, Patria Finance

Philip Morris CR (PMCR) should release its FY12 results tomorrow March-26 .

Philip Morris CR - FY12 preview
CZK bln. FY11A FY12E cons FY12E Patria y/y Patria
Total revenues 12,16 - 13,04 7,3%
EBITDA 3,62 - 3,54 -2,2%
EBIT 3,15 - 3,07 -2,3%
Net profit 2,54 - 2,48 -2,3%

PMCR’s total revenues should increase by 7.3% y/y to 13.04 bln. CZK, largely due to significantly higher export sales. We expect revenues in the Czech Rep. to decrease by 2.7% y/y. This decline can be attributed to lower sales volumes in the CR (-7.5% y/y) impacted by the excise tax hike on cigarettes in 2012 and further PMCR’s market share loss, partly offset by better pricing achieved last year. We estimate that PMCR’s market share dropped last year to 42.2% from 44.3% in 2011. Based on the preliminary data released by PMCR’s parent company, we estimate the total Czech cigarette market decreased by 2.8% y/y last year.

In other segments, revenues in the Slovak Rep. should come higher by 4.3% y/y. Export revenues should significantly increase by 20.7% in 2012 versus 2011, primarily driven by higher shipments of cigarettes and other tobacco products to other PMI affiliates within the EU. However, note that the export is a low-margin segment, so the EBITDA contribution will only be marginal.

We expect operating income (EBITDA) in 2012 to be lower 2.2% y/y. EBITDA margin should thus decline by 2.7 ppt to 27.1%. Lower margin should result from higher share of low margin export sales on total PMCR’s sales volumes. Export sales volumes should account for roughly 60% of total sales volumes, while it was only 55% in 2011. Net income should reach 2.483 bln. CZK for the full year, down 2.3% y/y. This represents earnings of 905 CZK per share. Note that dividend is calculated from unconsolidated result which should be similar to the consolidated figure of 2.48 bln. CZK. As we expect 100% payout ratio, the dividend may reach 900 – 910 CZK per share vs 920 CZK/share last year.

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