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The Polish currency followed a sideways pattern after a slight initial weakening on Friday

16.1.2006 10:08

The market opened at 3.8080 EUR/PLN and 3.1560 USD/PLN and a moment later the zloty lost some ground in reaction to market rumors that PiS may want to create governing coalition with Self-Defense and Polish Peasants Party (PSL). It was after the general secretary of PO – Grzegorz Schetyna indicated such a possibility on radio. Later in the day one of PO leaders said that in this situation PO would have nothing to discuss with PiS. Populistic Self-Defence, PSL and LPR expressed their will to join such a coalition. It frightened some of investors, but there was no clear signal from PiS whether it would be feasible. We believe that such a solution is quite unlikely since PiS that is currently leading in public opinion polls (39% of public support !!!) has more incentive to go for earlier elections instead of having a marriage with populists. The hot atmosphere calmed down and till the end of the day the zloty followed a sideways pattern. The worse than expected November C/A deficit that amounted to PLN –539 m versus the market consensus of PLN -190 m did not spark a significant reaction from the zloty. The weaker C/A performance emerged from the widening trade imbalance due to lower dynamics of exports and stronger imports. From our perspective this clearly shows a rebound in domestic demand, particularly since the November IP figure was also quite strong. On the other hand it may also signal that the strengthening of the zloty would have a negative impact on export activity. Despite the barrage of economic data that is to be released today, the market will keep an eye on political developments. The CPI figure that we expect to be at 0.8% y/y should spur fresh demand for Polish bonds which can be also extended over other assets, which may trigger a further strengthening of the zloty.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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