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Coca-Cola Icecek - 2Q09 results significantly better than expected

Coca-Cola Icecek - 2Q09 results significantly better than expected

27.08.2009 13:48

Coca-Cola Icecek (CCI) posted net income of TRY 146.9m for 2Q09, up 54% from TRY 95.3m in 2Q08. The outcome was significantly better than both our forecast and the market consensus of TRY 112m. CCI’s operational performance came in substantially stronger than our estimates in 2Q09 but failed to show a year-on-year improvement versus 2Q08. Non-operating gains such as FX gains (TRY 54m) and income from asset sales (TRY 15m) contributed to CCI’s bottom-line in 2Q09. International operations showed a strong recovery in terms of absolute growth and margin improvements in 2Q09.

Consolidated sales volume reached 172m unit cases (uc) in 2Q09, implying a 14% y/y increase. This was the result of 51% y/y growth in CCI’s international sales volume, which reached 46.6m uc in 2Q09. Sales volume in Turkey rose 4.2% y/y to 125.3m uc in 2Q09. A significant portion of the increase in international volumes stemmed from the consolidation of the Pakistan operation, which was not consolidated in the firm’s 2Q08 financials. Without mentioning any volume figures, CCI stated that Pakistan operations performed well in 2Q09 and that volumes remained weak in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Jordan. Volume growth continued in Iraq and Syria but pressure from competitive pricing increased on these markets.

Revenues rose 12% y/y to TRY 745m in 2Q09, slightly higher than our forecast of TRY 736m and lower than the consensus of TRY 759m. CCI’s Turkey operations posted revenue growth of 2.7% y/y to TRY 571m in 2Q09, lower than volume growth of 4.2% y/y in the period as a result of a lower average selling price. The sparkling category remained weak in the first part of 2Q09, but the still category compensated for the volume contraction. However, the increasing contribution of the water and tea categories in total sales diluted the company’s average selling prices in 2Q09. Revenue per unit case came in at TRY 4.55 in 2Q09, down 1.5% y/y. International net sales increased 25.4% y/y to US$ 110m in 2Q09 on the back of a 51% increase in volumes in the period thanks to the contribution of the Pakistan operation. Revenue per uc fell 16.8% y/y to US$ 2.37 in 2Q09, mainly due to currency devaluations in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and the shift in CCI’s country mix towards lower revenue per uc countries.

Gross profit came in at TRY 297m for 2Q09, up 4% y/y, indicating a 310bp decline in the gross profit margin to 39.9% in 2Q09 due to a decline in the gross margin of Turkey operations. FX-based price increases for sugar and packing material (especially for can) dragged down CCI’s gross profit margin in 2Q09. Raw material costs as a percentage of sales rose to 37.2% in 2Q09 from 36.4% in 2Q08.

EBITDA came in at TRY 147m for 2Q09, up 10% y/y, which was 10% higher than our estimate and the consensus forecast of TRY 121m. CCI’s EBITDA margin contracted by a mere 400bp to 19.7% in 2Q09. Despite a higher contraction in the gross margin, the company managed to control its operating expenses in 2Q09 and posted an almost flat EBITDA margin versus the same period last year. Operating expenses as a percentage of sales declined to 18.0% in 2Q09 from 20.6% in 2Q08.

Net financial expense, which exerted a drag on net profit in 1Q09, turned into net financial income in 2Q09, which helped to boost the firm’s bottom-line in the period. CCI’s net financial income increased to TRY 49.7m in 2Q09 versus TRY 9m in 2Q08 thanks to a TRY 76m non-cash gain on CCI’s FX-denominated financial debt. CCI's net debt increased to US$ 585m at end-2Q09 from US$ 571m at end-1Q09. The majority of the firm’s consolidated financial debt of US$ 736m is FX-denominated, with 79% in US$ and 13% in €. Only 10% of CCI’s total debt is due in 2009 while the majority of the remaining debt is due in 2010 (59%) and 2011 (28%).

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