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Polish retail sales in the focus this week, Koruna and Czech bonds ignore government’s confidence vote

Polish retail sales in the focus this week, Koruna and Czech bonds ignore government’s confidence vote

26.04.2011 10:46

The Czech koruna stayed near 24.10 in thin trading ahead of Easter Holidays. The technical picture remains still positive from short term perspective. Next barrier is at 23.90 EUR/CZK and if the positive sentiment on the global equity markets prevails, we may move there pretty soon. Today’s government confidence vote should not bring much attention as the ruling coalition still has comfortable majority in the Parliament, so the government will easily survive.

The Hungarian forint began to test the key level of 265 at the end of last week as high yielders saw good demand on global markets. It seems that high yielders could receive renewed interest from international investors as global markets trade mixed, while improving fundamentals favour the stability of the forint. Hungary’s fiscal consolidation plans received warm welcome from analysts, which could keep demand strong as long as the international background remains broadly supportive as the local news calendar looks to be light over the coming weeks.
The bond market settled down at the key 7.00% level at the long-end, while shortterm rates are expected to remain unchanged for many months now. Contained inflationary pressures together with stable financial market conditions may allow the central bank to keep the base rate unchanged for longer and the next step could be in any direction as there are arguments for both in favour of a cuts or of a hike.

The Polish zloty traded sideways during last two (low-volume) sessions. The EUR/PLN currency pair remained stuck to 3.95 EUR/PLN level.
This week, figures on retail sales and unemployment in March will be released. Nevertheless, we do not expect that the figures should have a significant impact on the polish currency. We still maintain the view that the zloty should stay close to current levels in sessions ahead. We think that the room for prospective gains might be capped by the revision of huge “Errors and omissions” line in the balance of payments which is due to June. The revision might unveil that the current account deficit is worse than initially expected.

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