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TNT: No longer holding hands

TNT: No longer holding hands

26.5.2011 9:42

TNT (16,6 EUR, 0,70%) Express will have its first day of trading today on an as-if-and-when-issued basis. PostNL will be traded on an ex-spin-off basis. The settlement of trades on First Trading date and first date of irrevocable trading is on 31 May 2011.
We continue to rate the company Hold for the combined Group, but our TP will come down to € 18.0/sh.

PostNL – dividend vs. cash (outs)

The core business of the postal group is in structural decline, an issue which needs to be compensated through fierce restructuring and growth stemming from Parcels and International. However, management acknowledges this and is dedicated to a firm dividend policy (75% pay-out of underlying cash operating income, with a min. of € 150m). Due to the heavy cash outs relating to restructuring, pensions and a large capex program, the 29.9% stake it holds in Express will be kept as collateral. We believe the companies’ guidance is realistic, and the shares are worth € 4.2/sh + € 4.0/sh for the 29.9% PostNL will keep in TNT Express. Our PostNL valuation is based on DCF and implies a 9.5% gross dividend yield. We have decided not to value the Co. on an implied yield as such, since the Express stake is needed to pay out the dividend, and hence this would be double counting.

TNT Express – the upside still lies in the emerging markets
Management has to restore confidence after a horrific performance in Brazil. This has also put in question the domestic Chinese activities, which TNT tries to transform from a LTC to a day-definite service. In Europe, the market is highly fragmented and it proves challenging to improve yields. UPS (49,05 EUR, -7,71%) and Fedex ( EUR, 0,00%) are furthermore growing their market share organically and officially stated that a take-out of TNT Express is not on their agenda. We value TNT Express at € 9.6/sh on 7.5x EV/EBITDA 2012 which we see as an appropriate 1-year forward multiple, in-line with the historic multiples of Fedex and UPS. Our DCF points to a value of € 9.8/sh.

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