Inflation in producer prices eased in May, but the figures are slightly above expectations. Thanks to the decrease of crude oil prices the refined products did not push the headline index higher. Contrary to the previous months, their contribution was negative. On the other hand, food prices are accelerating. In May they were the most important driver of the PPI. We have already got a similar picture from the CPI report. The second driver are metals and metal products.
The inflation is still driven mainly by its volatile components - fuels were replaced by food. That is why the figures themselves are not a reason for an immediate reaction of the central bank, even thought the 6 pct y-o-y growth is already quite high. The CNB may still be worried by secondary effects, but on the other hand real economy data are worsening in both the Eurozone and the Czech Republic. That is why we do not expect the bank to lift interest rates at its oncoming June meeting. The hike should come in the 3Q.
Actual (May): 0.5 % m/m, 6.2 % y/y
Consensus: 0.4 % m/m, 6.0 % y/y
Previous (Apr): 0.8 % m/m, 6.4 % y/y