Arseus will release its 2Q11 sales figures on Friday 8 July at 7:30am CET. A conference call is planned at 9:30am CET.
Our View:
We expect 2Q11 sales to increase by 12.6% to € 121.5m, ahead of consensus which stands at € 120.3m, with an organic growth of 3.5%. This is in-line with the company’s FY11 guidance of achieving 3-6% organic growth on an annual basis.
On a divisional level, we expect continued growth for Fagronthanks to an increasing market share and geographical expansions. The acquisition of Brazilian DEG will represent an estimated contribution of over € 7m in 2Q11, and combined with continued high single digit organic growth (Fagron saw an an average organic growth of 7.5% in the last 6 quarters), we forecast another steep top-line growth of 24%. However, investors are reminded that 2Q10, with 9% organic growth, is a tough comparable for Fagron.
For Dental, the global dental sector has not seen the hoped-for recovery because of its late-cycle business. Indeed, recent updates from the consumer good sector indicate the prudent stance of consumers even on basic products (food), suggesting that the use of non-reimbursed dental implants and other luxury healthcare goods may continue to be postponed. In the first quarter, management focused on strategic restructuring of the product portfolio and new added value solutions. We do not expect that this strategy will have materialized in substantial top-line growth in 2Q11.
Medical has finished in 2010 its product divestment (worth over € 7m sales). However, the strategy shift towards higher-value products and concepts requires a different S&M approach and management guided earlier it would take at least until mid-2011 (or longer) to go through the learning curve of selling concepts rather than products. Thanks to the acquisition of DeVroe in 4Q10, the overall top-line performance may show some growth.
For Corilus, continued roll-out of new software products should continue to support the quarterly growth.
Our divisional 2Q11 sales forecast is slightly higher than consensus:
Fagron: +24% to € 57.7m, 8% organic (consensus € 56.3m)
Dental: +2% to € 42.2m, flat organic (consensus € 42.2m)
Medical: +3% to € 12.9m, of which -3% organic (consensus € 13.1m)
Corilus: +5% to € 8.8m, fully organic (consensus € 8.7m)
Conclusion:
Arseus is trading at an all-time high with 10x PE11 and 7.6x EV/EBTIDA11. Given the growth prospects of the business activities and the more-than-average crisis resistance of their service offering, the stock clearly suffered from the recent downward market trend. Hence, because more acquisitions are yet to come and management has been delivering on the promise so far, we reiterate ahead of the update our Accumulate rating and € 13 target price.