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Arcadis - Don’t be fooled by 2Q’s EBITA

Arcadis - Don’t be fooled by 2Q’s EBITA

23.07.2013 10:29

Arcadis’ 2Q13 results are due on 31 August before market opening. We expect Arcadis to report Gross revenues of € 656m (€ 645m css); Net revenues of € 488m (€ 481m), EBITA of € 43.9m (€ 43.0m), Operational EBITA of € 47.8m (€ 46.3m) and net income from operations of € 28.0m (€ 27m). We expect net organic revenues growth of 2.4% which compares to consensus of 1.4%. For 2013, management expects a further increase of revenues and profits. We predict net revenue growth of 3.8% (1.7% organic) and 10% growth in net income from operations. This compares to css which stands at 2.0% organic growth and 14% growth in net income from operations. 

Arcadis uses different EBITA definitions, which often require some clarification. Between April and June last year a range of non-recurring items had a significant impact on the numbers. This makes a y/y comparison somewhat complicated especially as a € 5.3m non-cash charge in Poland was seen as non-recurring, which would have had an impact of 1.1% on margins. By way of a comparison, our own 2Q12 REBITA margin came in at 9.2% (Arcadis’ recurring EBITA stood at 8.0%) and we expect it to be 9.0% over 2Q13. By Arcadis’ definition this would signal a significant improvement, while on our definition it is flattish to slightly declining. 

EBITDA into Operating Cash (excl. fin & tax) conversion was particularly strong over 2012 and we expect it toremain so over the foreseeable future. Together with a low capex requirement, and a net debt / EBITDA at end-2013 of 1.0x, we believe that Arcadis has up to € 300m in the kitty to spend on acquisitions. Priorities likely lie in Water & Environment in Asia, while we also see some blank spots in the South American buildings segment.

Fairly priced:
A blend of historical & peer multiples, and our EVA & DCF analysis points to a value of € 23/sh. At our TP Arcadis would trade at an adjusted P/E 2014 of 12.5x, an EV/EBITA of 9.0x and EV/IC of 2.3x. With limited upside to our TP we stick to our Hold rating on the stock.

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