The IOC's (ConocoPhilips, Shell and Agip) option to buy Unipetrol's 51% stake in Ceska rafinerska (Craf) is expected to expire in coming days. Note that the IOC consortium, which holds a 49% stake in Craf, has an option to buy the stake if Unipetrol's majority owner changes. The exercise price has been set by an independent expert at USD 235m (we value the stake at USD 252m). If exercised, the Unipetrol privatization price may change according to an undisclosed mechanism which should however basically reflect the difference between PKN Orlen's valuation of Craf and the option exercise price. We believe (based on some vague indications) that the option will remain unexercised; neither of the IOC members officially commented on their intentions though.
Jan Hájek, Patria Finance