The Czech currency fell to a four-month low of 30.960 during morning
trading. However, the koruna recovered soon and was firming in the rest of
the day. The EUR/CZK closed at the level of 30.700. July inflation figure
has almost no impact on the koruna. The EUR/CZK more or less ignored the
government's decision on the privatisation of Cesky Telecom. The majority
stake of 51% will be sold to a consortium of Deutsche Bank and TDC for EUR
1.82bn. Money will be swapped via CNB's foreign-currency account. The koruna
vs. the dollar stayed in the range of 31.640 - 31,850 all day long and
closed at 31.700. Industrial output figure was released today. We don't
expect a significant impact on the koruna. The EUR/CZK should be curbed
between 30.550 - 30.850 and the USD/CZK should move in the range of 31.500 -
32.000. Consumer prices rose by an all-time-low 0-6% y/y in July, while the
m/m growth equalled 0.5%. Unemployment rate increased to 9.2% in July in
comparison to 8.7% in June.
open high low close today (9.8.)
EUR/CZK 30.910 31.000 30.660 30.700 30.720
USD/CZK 31.690 31.850 31.640 31.700 31.680
Martin Kocura, CSOB Investment Research