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Czech Watch - 4 August 2000

4.8.2000 8:30

The nationalization spree continues, as yet another industrial giant, CKD, fell into the state arms. Its shareholders first reduced its capital by 90%, only to see Konsolidacni banka and NPF to boost it back through a recapitalization of loans. As always, the Ministry of Labor leaked an "estimate" of July unemployment rate that it expects to rise from 8.7% to 9.0%. Positive seasonal factors are gone and unemployment will keep rising until the end of this year, albeit slowly.
Vaclav Klaus asks in an article whether the much-hyped "new economy" is not akin to the Soviet-era "scientific revolution" that was also meant to propel economy into a more dynamic phase. Well, one wonders what drives our Parliament speaker to enter discussions that clearly over stretch his political duties and his domestic horizons.
The koruna stabilized at its newly gained level just above 35.30 CZK/EUR. This level is seen as a (yet another) trigger for an CNB's intervention. As the euro fell again (sorry for that) to 0.905 USD/EUR, the dollar strengthened to above 39 CZK/USD level where it traded at late May.
Czech bonds fell in quiet trading on Thursday. Though some have shown interest to buy longest government bond 6.40/10, the one to be reoffered in auction next week, generally the prices fell in longer part of the yield curve. The volume traded was again deeply below average, and so will probably be the end of the week. It becomes clear that market is now waiting for the CPI figures, which will be released on Tuesday.
Current benchmark figures: MoF 6.75/05 100.25-55 (-5 bps), MoF 6.30/07 96.25-55 (-15 bps), MoF 6.40/10 95.55-85 (-10 bps).

(Ondrej Schneider and Dalimil Vyskovsky)

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