Czech Republic
The stronger euro helped the Czech crown trim some of the previous losses and the pair came back to the level of 24.10 EUR/CZK.
Nevertheless it seems that the koruna cannot rely on weakening US dollar any longer and the pair may easily give up Friday’s gains. On the other hand, the Czech koruna could decouple from the region ahead of CNB meeting scheduled for Thursday. That is why the pair could stay in current range 24.05-24.35 EUR/CZK.
The Czech central bank is facing slightly higher inflation, but the growth remains subdued and the Czech koruna is pretty strong. Especially domestic demand is disappointingly slow as households face higher unemployment, government is in restriction mode and companies hesitate to invest. Furthermore external risks have clearly grown over the last weeks. Although we stick to our view that CNB should start to normalize rates from in August, there is clear risk of later start.
Poland - NBP’s Belka said its reasonable to wait with further hikes
The Polish zloty partially erased previous losses on Friday. Nevertheless, the EUR/PLN currency pair still remains well above the 200 days moving average (3.95 EUR/PLN). NBP’s president Marek Belka mitigated the impact of sky-rocketing inflation (which soared to 5% y/y in May) on Friday as he said that the NBP had raised interest rates four times this year and that it was reasonable to wait with further tightening. Hence, Belka’s words play in favour of our view that the Polish central bank is going to take a summer break in the rate hiking cycle before a final move in autumn.
Apart from domestic macro figures (unemployment, retail sales, core inflation), the zloty should focus mainly on the development of the situation in Greece (and thus EUR/USD currency pair). Technically speaking, the zloty is currently trading between 200 days moving average (3.95 EUR/PLN) and resistance at 3.99 EUR/PLN.