The Czech crown did not like rather dovish comments after CNB meeting. Furthermore strengthening US dollar and a series of negative news from US and euro zone did not help the Czech currency at the beginning of the session. Although in the late trading the Czech koruna felt certain relief after the rumours about a new 5-year deal for Greece, the pair clearly remained above 55-day moving average.
Regarding the CNB meeting the central bank set another strong message that it is not time to change rates, although both growth and inflation run above the CNB macro targets. CNB vice-governor Tomsik indicated that inflationary risks are balanced so the bank might stick to its previous projection, which eyes the first hike in the last quarter.
From a technical point of view it is clear signal that the koruna is opened to further losses. That can be the case especially if the nervousness ahead of Greek austerity vote (next week) comes back to the global market.
Hungary - The forint is close to its 3-month low
The Hungarian forint weakened on Thursday as risk aversion was again stronger after the dollar appreciated. The pair is hovering around the key 269.00 level, close to its 3-month low of 270.80. There was not much news on the domestic front and thus the forint is following the international sentiment. The bond market suffered more yesterday and yields at the long-end rose to 7.45% on the fixing, which is the highest since January. The long-end of the curve seems to have been suffering since foreign demand dropped after many months of hefty buying. It will be interesting to see at what level demand could match supply.
Despite the national holiday, the zloty experienced a relatively volatile session on Thursday. The EUR/PLN currency pair followed EUR/USD and in intraday trading even breached 4 EUR/PLN level.
Regarding domestic events, the zloty will be waiting for next week’s releases of balance of payments revisions and inflation expectations. Our analysis showed that the NBP decisions are particularly sensitive on a rise in inflation expectations and changes in employment.
As far as the situation in Greece is concerned, an agreement between Greek government and IMF/EU from the late evening might help the zloty to partially erase recent losses.