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US non-manufacturing ISM still hovering around 53

US non-manufacturing ISM still hovering around 53

6.10.2011 9:22

In September, the US non-manufacturing ISM dropped from 53.3 to 53.0, margin-ally less than the consensus estimate, which was looking for a decline to 52.8. Over the previous six months, the non-manufacturing ISM continued to hover sideways around the 53-level. The details show a significant improvement in new orders (56.5 from 52.8), backlog of orders (52.5 from 47.5) and inventory sentiment (59.0 from 56.0) and also business activity (57.1 from 55.6) improved somewhat in September. Less encouraging was the significant decline in the employment index (48.7 from 51.6) and also new export orders (52.0 from 56.5), imports (47.5 from 53.5), supplier deliveries (59.4 from 53) and inventory change (51.5 from 53.5) weakened signifi-cantly. The prices paid index eased from 64.2 to 61.9, after a significant increase the month before. The US services sector is hovering sideways for already six months now with little signs of improvement, suggesting that the growth re-mained moderate in the third quarter, which will probably remain the case at the end of the year.

According to the ADP employment report, private employment increased by 91 000 in September, slightly more than the expected 75 000 jump and broadly the same pace as in the previous month. The August figure was marginally downwardly re-vised from 91 000 to 89 000. Looking at the details, employment dropped for a sec-ond straight month in the manufacturing sector (-5000 from -7 000) and rose only marginally in the broader goods-producing sector (1 000 from 6 000). In the services sector, employment growth picked up marginally (90 000 from 83 000). Please note that the Verizon (35,77 USD, -1,73%) strike had no impact on the ADP figures. The outcome is slightly above the consensus which is encouraging, but recently the correlation be-tween the ADP and official payrolls report was weak and therefore we are re-luctant to draw strong conclusions from these figures.


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