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CEZ: Situation in Bulgaria is settling down; Fitch warns future CO2 price remain risk

CEZ: Situation in Bulgaria is settling down; Fitch warns future CO2 price remain risk

22.04.2013 9:19
Autor: Tomáš Sýkora, Patria Finance

CEZ’s country manager in Bulgaria, Petr Dokladal, said the situation there regarding the possible loss of its distribution license is settling down. Ambassadors from third countries took part in a meeting with the regulator, and a decision on the license will not be made until after the elections. Dokladal said the regulator apparently realizes it is not so easy to revoke a license. /slightly POSITIVE; Bulgarian regulator said on 16th April it will make make additional checks during the next two months before ruling on whether to cancel the power-distribution license of CEZ. / 

Future CO2 price remain risk for Utilities after last Tuesday’s EU vote, Fitch said late Friday. The Parliament's decision is likely to keep CO2 prices low for several years. Producers such as RWE (26,35 EUR, 1,24%) and PGE are better placed in the short term because of their more profitable coal- and lignite-fuelled fleets, while those more reliant on gas, such as E.ON (13,14 EUR, -0,76%), are more exposed to weaker cash flows, wrote Fitch. A decrease in CO2 prices resulting in lower wholesale power prices has also worsened the profitability of nuclear and hydro plants, including in the Nord Pool and most renewable energy generation remains highly uneconomical without subsidies while CO2 prices are low, Fitch said. Although CO2 prices are likely to be low in the near term, there is still potential for political efforts to boost them in the medium term, as the backloading plan will go back to the Parliament's Environment Committee, added Fitch. / Carbon intesity of CEZ generation is 0.6 tonne/MWh vs. 0.8 of RWE, 1.1 of PGE or 0.5 of E.ON. Marginal European price setting plant have an emission factor of 0.8 t/MWh -> a decrease in CO2 price has a negative impact on CEZ profitability since 2014 and beyond;

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