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The Czech koruna jumped up yesterday

9.3.2005 10:02
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It opened at EUR/CZK 29.55 and was inching up until the afternoon. However, the unit jumped 0.6 % around 14:00 on the dollar drop and rumors about inflow of euros from new government euro bond. The koruna moved from 29.52 to 29.36 within last two hours of the session. Of course, there is overall positive sentiment in the region for several weeks, too. Moreover, revealed data also supported the koruna. The inflation was only 0.2 % in February, which holds annual inflation at 1.7 %. It was pretty in line with expectation, thus more important was unexpected drop of unemployment, which fell 0.2 percentage point to 9.6 % (new methodology) in February. It showed very good condition of the economy. Finally, the minutes from February’s meeting of the central bank revealed that only 4 members out of seven were in favor of holding rates unchanged. The discussion on the meeting was mainly about when to cut rates, thus the rate cut on the next meeting is likely. Surprisingly, the bank assessed the strong koruna as not serious problem for the economy. They mainly focused on the influence of the koruna on inflation. However it could change, because the koruna rose 1.7 % from the last meeting.

Today the koruna might face some profit-taking. Yesterday’s rumors could prove not to be right. On the other hand, investors and traders might be forced to square their euro position due to stop-losses. Moreover, the sentiment is pretty positive and upcoming indicators should back it. All at all, that’s obvious the koruna goes for a new all time high now. Under current trend the unit will reach it in three weeks. Thus the koruna is in hands of central bank, which should act now. The intervention or rate cut of 50 bps is not excluded.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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