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The EUR/CZK pair finally broke through the key resistance at 28.385 on Friday

19.6.2006 10:59
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On Friday, the EUR/CZK pair finally broke through the key resistance at 28.385 as several big orders from London based names triggered a successful attack on this key barrier. The break activated several stop-losses and as a result EUR/CZK quickly marched above the 28.50 level just before the domestic closing. As said several times last week, the Czech currency amazingly shrugged-off weakness of other CE currencies. Friday’s session was, however, completely different and CZK apparently tried to catch up with losses that had been seen in other Central-European FX markets last week.

Koruna finally broke resistance at 28.385 Finally, it looks that there is a chance for a breakthrough in the post-election deadlock. The current prime minister and leader of social democrats Paroubek indicated that his party might tolerate (under certain conditions) the forming center-right coalition of the conservative ODS, Christian Democrats and Green Party. This should be modestly positive for the koruna. However, it is still a long way to go to get support for such a cabinet as Parobek also said that Soc-Dem would not vote for the government, which wants a flat tax or privatization of public services. These were the main promises in ODS’s economic programme. Nevertheless today, the Czech currency will closely watch the forint and its reaction on the NBH Monetary Council meeting. Should the forint remain weak, it would be difficult for the EUR/CZK pair to turn back south and dip back below the 28.50 level.

(CSOB - Investment research)

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