There was not much action from the Polish
zloty on Thursday as the EUR/PLN held to
the tight 4.04-4.06 range throughout most of
the session. The unit came under pressure
right after the opening, suffering from the
softer regional sentiment, but strong zloty
bids were seen in the 4.06 area and the PLN
managed to fully recover ahead of the C/A
numbers later in the day. The current
account balance came in at EUR –209 m,
slightly better than expected. The zloty
managed to capitalize on the release as
well, especially since the data showed an
exceptional performance of both exports and
imports. However, just before the closing the
zloty erased its previous gains and fell back
to pre-opening levels as sellers returned to
the market.
On the domestic data front, the June CPI
release will be in the center of attention with
the money supply data next on the agenda,
but far less significant as far as market
reaction is concerned. We expect headline
inflation to have inched up to 1.0% y/y in
June, slightly above the market consensus
of 0.9% y/y, but unless the number differs
significantly from expectations the market
should take it in its stride.
(CSOB - Investment research)