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Krka - 2Q09 preview, due on 30 July

Krka - 2Q09 preview, due on 30 July

27.7.2009 11:10

We forecast Krka to post a € 46.0m IFRS consolidated net profit (up 4.8% q/q and 34.2% y/y) for 2Q09 on 30 July after Slovenian market close. The company already revealed the it’s 2Q09 sales (up 3.5% y/y), which indicated strong CEE and WE sales. We expect the company to continue to expand it’s operating expenses to support the introduction of new products. We expect revaluation gains mainly on the company’s PLN denominated trade receivables to boost the financial result during the quarter. We regard it positively that Krka recently get positive opinions from the European regulator (European Medicines Agency – EMEA) for three of it’s generic medicines, which suggests the drugs could soon get marketing registrations: while Krka's generic clopidogrel is expected to face relatively fierce competition, we expect less intense competition for Krka’s generic Viagra and generic Alzheimer drug in the initial period after they receive the EMEA marketing registrations.

  2Q08 1Q09 2Q09F Change (%)  
In € m, unless otherwise stated   IFRS IFRS IFRS Q/Q Y/Y
Net sales   224.9 245.2 232.7 -5.1% 3.5%
             
Geographical sales breakdown            
Slovenia   26.3 26.8 25.9 -3.0% -1.5%
o/w Terme Krka   8.3 7.7 8.4 9% 1%
South-East Europe   31.2 32.3 31.6 -2.0% 1.4%
o/w Croatia   10.2 10.3 10.0 -2.9% -1.6%
o/w Romania   8.4 7.6 7.0 -7.9% -17.0%
East Europe   58.4 64.0 53.3 -16.6% -8.7%
o/w Russia   35.2 49.4 37.2 -24.7% 5.7%
Central Eastern Europe   56.9 72.2 64.1 -11.3% 12.7%
o/w Poland   29.8 29.6 28.0 -5.4% -6.0%
o/w Czech Republic   7.0 17.8 12.0 -32.6% 71.4%
West Europe and Overseas Markets   52.0 50.0 57.6 15.4% 10.8%
             
Gross operating profit   145.1 159.9 152.2 -4.8% 4.9%
Sales and marketing expenses   61.8 56.9 61.1 7.3% -1.2%
R&D expenses   19.1 22.0 24.0 8.7% 25.4%
Administrative expenses   19.9 17.4 18.6 7.3% -6.5%
Other operating revenues   1.5 3.9 5.0 28.7% 238.3%
Total net operating expenses   99.4 92.4 98.7 6.7% -0.7%
Operating profit   45.7 67.5 53.5 -20.7% 17.0%
Net financial expenses   -1.6 -12.4 5.4 -143.9% -448.6%
             
Profit before tax   44.2 55.1 59.0 7.0% 33.5%
Income tax expense   9.8 11.2 13.0 15.5% 32.1%
Minority interest   0.1 0.0 0.0 -100.0% -100.0%
Net profit   34.3 43.9 46.0 4.8% 34.2%
Earnings per share (in EUR)   1.01 1.30 1.36 4.8% 34.2%
             
Gross margin   64.5% 65.2% 65.4% 18bps -6,452bps
S&M to sales   27.5% 23.2% 26.3% 303bps -2,749bps
Admin to sales   8.9% 7.1% 8.0% 92bps -886bps
R&D to sales   8.5% 9.0% 10.3% 131bps -850bps
EBIT margin   20.3% 27.5% 23.0% -452bps -2,033bps
Net profit margin   15.2% 17.9% 19.8% 187bps -1,524bps

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