Actual (Sep): -0.1 % m/m, 3.6 % y/y
Consensus: 3.7 % y/y
Previous (Aug): -0.1 % m/m, 3.6 % y/y
Inflation came out a touch below consensual forecast and at the same level as in August. Month-on-month, consumer prices decreased slightly driven by food and services. Prices of seasonal food went further down, while other food prices increased. Prices of services were influenced by discounts of package tours. On the other side there was an increase in prices of clothes after the summer price discounts. Also fuel prices increased, but their impact on the index was not very big in September.
Core inflation stays elevated (3.0 pct) but there is room for disinflation given the weak domestic demand. Monetary policy is now caught between a worsening economic outlook and a potential surge in risk aversion that might hurt the forint. The new inflation data do not change our view that interest rates will stay stable for several more months.