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OPEC: Speculators have continued to play the major role in 2011

OPEC: Speculators have continued to play the major role in 2011

9.11.2011 14:57

On Tuesday, Brent crude surged to 116.50 USD per barrel (USD/bbl) in early trading as frets about prospective impact of IAEA’s report on Iran’s nuclear program on Middle East stability supported the prices. Nevertheless, later in the day, this was overshadowed by the fact that Italian PM (1 1450 CZK, -0,43%) Berlusconi survived a vote on the budget in the Parliament. Moreover, according to Reuters, a US official said that any US sanctions imposed on Teheran were unlikely to be focused on its oil industry.
Yesterday, the OPEC released its World Oil outlook. The organization revised its price assumptions to the upside (by 10 USD/bbl due to rising marginal costs of new projects) – it newly assumes that price of oil will stay between 85 – 95 USD/bbl during this decade. The OPEC reiterated its view that speculators have continued to play the major role in 2011. During a presentation of the report, OPEC’s Secretary General al-Badri said that the cartel was unlikely to pump more than 30 million barrels per day next year although he reiterated it was ready to do so if the market needed more oil. Regarding the outlook for the spare capacity, the report said that it should expand to approximately 8 million barrels per day by 2015. As far as Libya is concerned, the OPEC reiterated that it expects Libya’s pre-war output will be restored within 15 months or less.

Base metals complex posted solid gains on Tuesday. Still, copper closed well below 8000 USD per ton (USD/t) level. Regarding today’s news, Chinese inflation fell sharply in October to 5.5% Y/Y (in line with expectations), the lowest level in five months and the biggest drop yet. Producer price inflation registered an even steeper decline. A central bank adviser added that monetary policy is working but its overall direction should not be changed - this view was also supported by Prime Minister Wen.
Nevertheless, despite the fact that other data confirmed relatively good condition of China’s economy, the situation in the euro zone continues to weigh on base metals prices. Copper is hovering slightly above 7700 USD/t level.

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