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EMU annual growth rate of M3 accelerates to 3.5 yr high

EMU annual growth rate of M3 accelerates to 3.5 yr high

29.11.2012 10:23

In the euro zone, the annual growth rate of M3 accelerated sharply in October. M3 picked up from 2.6% Y/Y to 3.9% Y/Y, while the consensus was looking for only a slight increase (to 2.8% Y/Y). The breakdown shows that the pick-up in M3 was due to a sharp increase in overnight deposits (€65B compared with the previous month), while also other short-term deposits expanded significantly in October (€32B).

Lending, on the contrary, remains extremely sluggish. Loans to the private sector increased by €3B in October, reversing only part of the previous month’s decline (-€13B). The annual rate of decline in loans to the private sector eased slightly, from -0.9% Y/Y to -0.7% Y/Y. Loans to non-financials contracted further in October, falling by €8B after already contracting by €24B in September. As a result, the annual rate of contraction accelerated from -1.5% Y/Y to -1.8% M/M. Loans to households rose by €4B after staying unchanged in the previous month, leading to an acceleration in the growth rate from 0.1% Y/Y to 0.5% Y/Y.

The sharp increase in M3 came as a surprise, but was mainly based in overnight and other short-term deposits, suggesting preference for liquidity. Lending remains however sluggish, as could have been expected after the latest Bank Lending Survey, which showed demand for credit continued to weaken while banks are further tightening credit conditions.


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