TVN’s CEO Markus Tellenbach is interviewed in today’s edition of Parkiet. According to the CEO, Poland’s TV ad market is in better shape now than in 4Q12, and the demand for advertisements is surprisingly strong. TVN has entirely sold out its airtime in January and February, despite the seasonally weak period. The CEO added that based on the current situation, he strongly believes Poland’s TV ad market will not show a further y/y decline in 2H13.
The interview should support the stock prices of both TVN and Cyfrowy Polsat. At present, the Polish TV ad market is expected to shrink by 5-6% y/y in 2013. However, there are also sceptics who predict even deeper contractions for 2013. If Mr Tellenbach is correct and the ad market comes in flat y/y in 2H13, even the assumption of a 5% contraction could be overly pessimistic for 2013. In our view, however, it is not that important whether the market shrinks 1pp more or less in 2013, as a flattish TV ad market in 2H13 would be a tangible sign of recovery and would convince more observers about growth on Poland’s TV ad market in 2014 onwards.