On Friday, the forint underperformed its peers after yet another warning of the European Commission regarding recent controversial amendments of the Hungarian constitution. EU Justice Commissioner Viviane Reding reiterated that recent steps of Orban’s administration may force Brussels to cut EU fund payments for Hungary. Meanwhile, the Polish zloty edged higher and government bonds continued to perform well after an unexpected fall in inflation in February – the yield of 10Y government bonds fell by 5 basis points and closed last week in sight of its all-time low.
Over the weekend, the Eurogroup reached a bailout agreement on Cyprus. Euro zone Finance Ministers took an unprecedented step and decided there would be a tax on Cypriote Bank deposits to reduce the amount of the bailout package for the country. As for the possible impact on the regional currencies, we suspect that the news may weigh on the Hungarian forint in particular as the forint has already been under pressure of Orban’s recent measures. Regarding the koruna, weakening to EUR/CZK 25.63 has been going on already. If the level is breached (a likely scenario), the next target will be seen at EUR/CZK 25.75.