The Czech koruna rebound yesterday. The
unit opened weak at the level EUR/CZK
31.80 but it gradually rose and touched
31.69 in the afternoon. There was no
particular reason for the development. Only
heavily overbid 10-year benchmark tender
could be a positive factor for the currency.
Thus we see the rise as a correction of
Tuesday’s drop. August’s inflation figure had
no significant impact on the market.
Consumer prices were flat in previous
month, we witnessed only a seasonal price
development. A seasonal drop of food and
apparel prices offset also seasonal
increase in package tour prices. Annual
inflation again slightly rose to 3.4%. In the
same time, unemployment rate rose to
9.3% under new European methodology.
That is rather positive signal because in
summer months labour market is under
pressure of fresh graduates who seek their
first job. During previous years,
unemployment rose more in the same month
of the year. All at all, recent macroeconomic
figures point to no acute need for monetary
tightening but it also support slow and gradual rise in real interest rates.
Today, the koruna may continue to trend
higher. We do not see any significant
reason, which should break the recent trend.
ČSOB - Investment Research