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Polish zloty traded in tight range yesterday

Polish zloty traded in tight range yesterday

13.12.2006 9:42

The Polish zloty traded in an extremely tight range between 3.81 and 3.82 EUR/PLN throughout the session on Tuesday as most players held to the sidelines ahead of the Fed rate decision later in the evening. The marginally softer Fed statement had no impact on the zloty as if to confirm that the dull pre-holiday trading conditions may have already settled in for good. If this were to be the case the zloty could in the end find it difficult to battle its way past EUR/PLN 3.80 before the year-end, which would obviously put our 3.7750 target out of reach for now.

Late in the evening Lech Kaczynski announced that he had proposed economics professor and former advisor to subsequent NBP presidents Jan Sulmicki from the Warsaw School of Economics to be the new central bank governor. Most, if not all observers were taken by surprise by this since Sulmicki has never been mentioned as a potential candidate. Nonetheless markets should not react to the nomination just yet simply because so little is known about the new NBP president. One of Sulmicki’s past co-workers has mentioned that he would most likely follow in the footsteps on Leszek Balcerowicz and maintain a firm stance on fighting inflation, which would no doubt be good news for the zloty. This does seem to be a reasonable assumption for the time being, but the market will be looking very intently for any comments from Sulmicki himself in the coming days, which could help verify this judgment.

The current account data due out at 1430 GMT will be the highlight of the session today. Poland was a net contributor to the common budget last month, for the first time since February and we expect a visible yet most likely one-off deterioration in the current account in October. Regarding the market reaction the bottom line is that the report has not been a market mover for quite some time now as data quality remains a major issue. On top of this our expectations regarding both the C/A and trade balance are not really materially different from the market consensus (EUR - 270 m and -130 m respectively) so we would be surprised by an outspoken negative reaction from the PLN.

ČSOB Investment research

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