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Weekly CZK report - Still on Positive Track

Weekly CZK report - Still on Positive Track

26.4.2011 16:02
Autor: Tomáš Vlk, Patria Finance

Markets got under pressure on Monday. Some speculations spread that Greece is already negotiating with the EU and the IMF in order to restructure its debt. This raised worries about big losses from the Greek bonds that might reach 50-70 pct of their nominal value. Yields of Greek, Irish and other risky bonds were therefore pushed to new highs. The event had negative impact across markets as it lifted risk aversion. Then, S&P rattled nerves even more by warning that the US might lose their AAA rating in next two years. The rating outlook was changed to negative from stable.

After the negative beginning of the week, sentiment improved thanks to good news from corporate sector. The upbeat corporate figures boosted risk appetite. Equity markets quickly erased their losses and also the euro-dollar regained its previous strength. The growth was supported by good soft indicators from the Eurozone and by a successful auction of Spanish bonds. Later in the week, the Philly Fed index disappointed and slowed the rally on both equities and the euro.

The koruna has strengthened this week but the moves were not only liked to the recent optimism on the global markets. The reactions of the Czech currency were irregular and not very correlated with other CE currencies. Some days, the koruna went opposite direction, which indicates that regional carry trades might be quite important.

CNB Governor Miroslav Singer and Vice Governor Mojmír Hampl proved that they are not in the hawkish part of the MPC. According to them, economic conditions have not changed in recent month. Hampl said that a rate hike was approaching but he also mentioned reasons why the timing is still unclear. It is the domestic demand that remains very muted and there is also risk that the koruna will appreciate if the fiscal crisis in the Eurozone worsens, he said. The comments were neutral for the koruna as they did not reveal any significant change in the central bankers´ views.

In the region, the Hungarian central bank decided to leave rates unchanged. It was expected and thus neutral. The statement following the meeting did not bring anything new either. But, interesting news came from Poland. The Polish central bank and the Ministry of Finance announced that a part of the proceeds from the EU funds will be conversed through spot market. This is aimed at muting the imported inflation pressures through appreciation of the zloty. The zloty reaction was obviously positive and it also had some positive impact on the koruna.

Next (2220 GBp, -0,85%) week, there are some very interesting events in the US calendar, such as the GDP release and the FOMC meeting. The question of Fed´s policy may be an important driver for the euro-dollar. The Eurozone debt crisis is still a big risk for the euro. Although the recent auctions have muted the worries, the vulnerability of Greece and other countries has not improved and may hit the shared currency repeatedly. No Czech events are scheduled for next week but the CNB meeting is approaching.

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