AEGON posted net profit better than expected

Aegon reported a net profit of € 402m (-2.8%) which compares to our forecast € 336m and a consensus at € 329m. The underlying profit before tax (uPBT) stood at € 401m (-17.0%) exact in line with our forecast € 402m and just slightly below consensus € 416m. uPBT growth was offset by € 44m unfavourable currency movements, by € 23m longevity charges in the Netherlands and by € 14m customer redress charges in the UK.

The US contributed € 325m (-25.6%) to uPBT, the Netherlands € 74m (-23.7% due to longevity), the UK € 10m (-54.5% due to customer redress) and New Markets € 59m (+47.5%). The holding contributed € -67m. Aegon expects the longevity provisions to persist in the coming quarters in the Netherlands whereas it does not exclude additional customer redress provisions in the UK.

The deterioration in fair value items (€ -23m) and impairments (€ -100m on mainly US RMBS and some exchange offers on specific holdings of European banks in the UK) was more than offset by the strong rise in realized gains to € 204m (+37.8%).

Other income had on aggregate a very limited impact (€ -16m) and are principally related to restructuring charges in the UK (€ 15m), the Netherlands (€ 10m) and New Markets (€ 3m).

Excess capital after full repayment of the Dutch state aid but before closing of the TransAmerica deal, stood at € 2.3bn of which € 1.0bn at the holding level. This translates into a solvency ratio for the US activities (RBC) of 375% and an IGD solvency ratio of c. 200%.
New life sales (APE) dropped 22% to € 431m which Aegon attributes to repricing. The Value of New Business showed the same trend with a 25% decline to € 103m. Gross deposits were strong at € 6.7bn (though down 11.5% y/y primarily due to lower asset management deposits in New Markets).

Our View:
2Q11 uPBT tax was in line whereas the net profit was better than expected. New life sales were weak but are partly explained by the shift of fixed annuity sales (APE) towards variable annuity sales (deposit business). All in all we see no reason to change our investment case of recommendation.

Conclusion:
We remain Accumulating with an unchanged target at € 7.0.