Yesterday afternoon, Dockwise announced it has filed a waiver request on a single covenant with its lender syndicate, for contingency purposes. The waiver request serves contingency planning purposes and would provide additional headroom in extraordinary market circumstances. Dockwise seeks consent for a temporary relaxation of the leverage ratio (net debt over EBITDA) for the period March 2012 until September 2013.
The good and the bad:
After last week's adjustments to future cashflows, this week's waiver request should further reduce the risk of a potential rights issue, if the banks permit. This is obviously positive as it would prevent a dilutive rights issue, should market conditions deteriorate, at the expense of temporarily higher interest rates. On the other hand, there could be some downside risk to our 2012 and 2013 estimates because of macro-economic trends. Circa 75% of sales is generated by shipping oil & gas platforms and the remainder is generated by shipping e.g. luxury yachts, port equipment, dredging equipment, and navy equipment/ships. So far, the backlog for 2012 and 2013 has been growing nicely, but there is still a large chunk of spot cargoes to be signed to boost utilization. The spot market is currently characterised by severely depressed prices, and a macro-economic slowdown could prolong this trend as it could reduce the amount of yacht, dredging and port cargoes.
Second cargo for Vanguard:
This morning, Dockwise announced it has secured a second cargo for the new built Vanguard: the Goliat FPSO, which will be transported from Korea to Norway. Financial details were not disclosed. Execution of this contract should be in 2013, immediately after the first contract has been completed (the Jack & St. Malo platform).
When considering the good and the bad, we believe de-risking re a potential rights issue outweighs potential earnings risk for 2012 and 2013. Hence, we consider today’s news positive. A spokesperson mentioned the waver was not requested because management seas any bears at sea, but just as a precaution should there be another shock to the economy a la Lehmann or default of one of the weaker euro countries. The second contract for Vanguard is of course positive and it lends credibility to the investment decision. We leave our earnings estimates unchanged.
3Q-11 results on 11 November (was 17 Nov.) before opening of the market